Modelling a sustainability threshold-based assessment and its experimentation in suburban Algiers
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.2298/SPAT241019008HKeywords:
sustainability, assessment, thresholds, modelling, AlgiersAbstract
This article examines the impact of growing urbanisation, with particular attention given to identifying thresholds that mark the onset of irreversible change and the associated risks when these thresholds are exceeded. The research presents a threshold-based tool for assessing sustainability – the Suburban Sustainability Systemic Thresholds Index (S3-TI) – which uses a systemic approach with threshold modeling to evaluate urban sustainability. It identifies trigger factors and their development thresholds within the socio-ecological system. This tool was applied to the Bordj-El-Kiffan municipality in Algiers, where data was collected through indicators spanning five systems: social, managerial, economic, environmental, and the built environment. The results from these indicators were then benchmarked against a reference area: the central urban system area. The assessment categorises the development thresholds as acceptable, critical, or unacceptable, reflecting the system’s proximity to sustainable or at-risk states. The results indicate that Bordj-El-Kiffan has surpassed critical to unacceptable thresholds in several domains, highlighting persistent deficiencies in essential services, limited citizen participation, difficulties in managing urban services and natural resources, unsustainable demographic patterns, and inadequate mobility infrastructure. The S3-TI tool serves as an alert system and awareness-raising instrument, emphasizing the importance of defining and respecting development thresholds to support adaptive and sustainable territorial governance. By integrating the S3-TI tool into future urban planning practices, sustainability in Algerian cities – and potentially in other Global South contexts – can be strengthened. The study emphasises qualitative aspects such as urban well-being and environmental equilibrium rather than solely focusing on quantitative indicators of growth, promoting a more holistic approach to urban sustainability.
References
Agyemang, F. S. K., Silva, E., Fox, S. (2022). Modelling and simulating ‘informal urbanization’: An integrated agent-based and cellular automata model of urban residential growth in Ghana, Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science, Vol. 50, No. 4, pp. 863-877. https://doi.org/10.1177/23998083211068843
Alcott, B. (2012). Population matters in ecological economics, Ecological Economics, Vol. 80, pp. 109-120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.06.001
Arrow, K., Bolin, B., Costanza, R., Dasgupta, P., Folke, C., Holling, C. S., Jansson, B. O., Levin, S., Mäler, K. G., Perrings, C. and Pimentel, D. (1996). Economic growth, carrying capacity, and the environment, Environment and Development Economics, Vol. 1, No.1, pp. 104-110. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1355770X00000413
Baouni, T. (2016). Urban Planning in Algiers in the Postcolonial Period: The Failure of Planning Instruments. Chapter 6. In C. N. Silva (Ed.), Urban Planning in North Africa (1st ed.). London: Routledge, pp. 71-80 [online]. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315548753-7/urban-planning-algiers-postcolonial-period-failure-planning-instruments-tahar-baouni?context=ubx&refId=b0a38444-c6d0-46e9-a3bf-4e1f25472e28 [Accessed: 14 Jul 2024].
Barles, S. (2020). Urban metabolism. In S. Haumann, M. Knoll, D. Mares (Eds.), Concepts of Urban-Environmental History. Bielefeld: transcript Verlag, pp. 109–124 [online]. http://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctv371ccds.10 [Accessed: 14 Jul 2024].
Becker, R. H., Jubenville, A., Burnett, G. W. (1984). Fact and judgment in the search for a social carrying capacity, Leisure Sciences, Vol. 6, No. 4, pp. 475–486. https://doi.org/10.1080/01490408409513049
Ben-Hamouche, M., Medjitna, M. (2020). Metropolisation or Macrocephaly? Algiers: At the Edge of the Tragedy, Planning Practice & Research, Vol. 36, No. 3, pp. 352-369. https://doi.org/10.1080/02697459.2020.1755103
Berezowska-Azzag, E., Abdelatif, I., Akrour, N., Bouallag-Azzoui, O., Srir, M. (2015). Baromètre des performances urbaines locales Alger et ses communes. Algérie: Alternatives urbaines.
Berezowska-Azzag, E. (2013). Intélligence urbaine, au-delà d’une planification, Courrier du Savoir, Vol. 16, pp. 55-63 [online]. http://archives.univ-biskra.dz/bitstream/123456789/1210/1/7-%20AZZAG%20.pdf [Accessed: 14 Jul 2024]
Berezowska-Azzag, E. (2005). La notion de seuils de croissance urbaine comme enjeu stratégique du projet urbain. Communication in Colloque international Développement urbain durable, gestion des ressources et gouvernance, Lausanne, Switzerland [online]. https://www.unil.ch/ouvdd/files/live/sites/ouvdd/files/shared/Colloque%202005/Communications/A)%20Ecologie%20urbaine/A1/E.%20Berezowska-Azzag.pdf [Accessed: 14 Jul 2024].
Davis, K. (1965). The Urbanization of the Human Population, Scientific American, Vol. 213, No. 3, pp. 40–53 [online]. http://www.jstor.org/stable/24931110 [Accessed: 14 Jul 2024]
De Rosnay, J. (1975). Le macroscope: vers une vision globale. Paris: Editions du Seuil.
DPAT (2015). Annuaire Statistique de la Wilaya d’Alger. Algiers: Wilaya of Algiers.
DPAT (2005). Annuaire Statistique de la Wilaya d’Alger. Algiers: Wilaya of Algiers.
Ehrlich, P. R., Ehrlich, A. H. (2009). The population bomb revisited, The electronic journal of sustainable development, Vol. 1, No. 3, pp. 63-71 [online]. https://mahb.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/2009_EhrlichPB-REVISIT-1.pdf [Accessed: 14 Jul 2024]
Falissard, B. (2005). Non-dits méthodologiques en recherche médicale, M/S: médecine sciences, Vol. 21, No. 10, pp. 880-885 [online]. https://id.erudit.org/iderudit/011593ar [Accessed: 14 Jul 2024]
Gudlaugsson, B., Dawood, H., Pillai, G., Short, M. (2021). First Step Towards a System Dynamic Sustainability Assessment Model for Urban Energy Transition. In Mporas, I., Kourtessis, P., Al-Habaibeh, A., Asthana, A., Vukovic, V., Senior, J. (Eds.), Energy and Sustainable Futures. Cham: Springer, pp. 347-257. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-63916-7_28
Hegarty, J., Maubrey, R. (2020). Decision making for sustainable development, Journal of Decision Systems, Vol. 29, pp. 497–510. https://doi.org/10.1080/12460125.2020.1847834
Hocine, M. (2021). Proposing SMaR²T-ATi, an assessment tool for urban sustainable development and experimentation on Eucalyptus municipal territory, Algiers province, Land Use Policy, Vol. 101, 105177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.105177
Hughes, J. T., Kozlowski, J. (1968). Threshold Analysis-an Economic Tool for Town and Regional Planning, Urban Studies, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 132-143. https://doi.org/10.1080/00420986820080251
Kennett, S. (2006). From science-based thresholds to regulatory limits: implementation issues for cumulative effects management. Canadian Institute of Resources Law for Environment Canada, Northern Division. University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada. [online]. https://doczz.net/doc/9005710/from-science-based-thresholds-to-regulatory-limits [Accessed: 10 Jul 2024]
Kumar, V., Rouquette, J. R., Lerner, D. N. (2013). Integrated modelling for Sustainability Appraisal of urban river corridors: going beyond compartmentalised thinking, Water research, Vol. 47, No. 20, pp. 7221-7234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2013.10.034
Le Moigne, J. L. (1994). La théorie du système général: théorie de la modélisation (4th ed.). Paris: Presses Universitaires de France.
Malisz, B. (1972). Threshold analysis as a tool in urban and regional planning, Papers of the Regional Science Association, Vol. 29, pp. 167-177. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf01962291
Martin, J., Runge, M. C., Nichols, J. D., Lubow, B. C., Kendall, W. L. (2009). Structured decision making as a conceptual framework to identify thresholds for conservation and management, Ecological Applications, Vol. 19, No. 5, pp. 1079–1090. https://doi.org/10.1890/08-0255.1
Morin, E. (1981). Peut-on concevoir une science de l'autonomie?, Cahiers internationaux de sociologie, Vol. 71, pp. 257-267 [online]. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40689958 [Accessed: 14 Jul 2024]
Newman, P., Kenworthy, J. (2006). Urban design to reduce automobile dependence, Opolis: An International Journal of Suburban and Metropolitan Studies, Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 35-52 [online]. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2b76f089 [Accessed: 14 Jul 2024]
Nouri-Boudiba, L., Farhi, A., Monnet, J. (2022). Le projet d’aménagement de la baie d’Alger, vers une évolution de l’action publique urbaine?, Annales de géographie, Vol. 744, No. 2, pp. 117-142. https://doi.org/10.3917/ag.744.0117
Ohnuma, S., Yokoyama, M., Mizutori, S. (2022). Procedural fairness and expected outcome evaluations in the public acceptance of sustainability policymaking: A case study of multiple stepwise participatory programs to develop an environmental master plan for Sapporo, Japan, Sustainability, Vol. 14, No. 6, 3403. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14063403
Office National des Statistiques (ONS) (2012). Premier recensement economique- Resultats définitifs de la premiere phase. Collections Statistiques, N° 172/2012 Série E: Statistiques Economiques N° 69. Alger: Office National des Statistiques [online]. https://www.ons.dz/img/pdf/resultats_definitifs_phase_i_re2011.pdf [Accessed: 15 May 2024].
Office National des Statistiques (ONS) (2011). Armature urbaine du Recensement Général de la Population et de l’Habitat. Collections Statistiques, N° 163/2011 Série S: Statistiques Sociales. Alger: Office National des Statistiques [online]. https://www.ons.dz/img/pdf/armature_urbaine_2008.pdf [Accessed: 15 May 2024].
PDAU-Plan Directeurs d’Aménagement et d'Urbanisme. Rapport de diagnostic prospectif (2015). Algiers: Wilaya of Algiers.
Perrin, C., Nougaredes, B. (2022). An analytical framework to consider social justice issues in farmland preservation on the urban fringe. Insights from three French cases, Journal of Rural Studies, Vol. 93, pp. 122-133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2020.07.007
PLAN BLEU – Centre d’activités régionales du PNUE/PAM (2013). Suivi de la Stratégie méditerranéenne de développement durable - Principaux Indicateurs [online]. http://planbleu.org/sites/default/files/publications/idd_2013fr_0.pdf [Accessed: 15 May 2024].
Randolph, J. (2004). Environmental land use planning and management. Washington, DC: Island Press.
Repetti, A., Desthieux, G. (2006). A Relational Indicatorset Model for urban land-use planning and management: Methodological approach and application in two case studies, Landscape and Urban Planning, Vol. 77, No. 1–2, pp. 196–215. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2005.02.006
Riadh, D., Osman, M. M. (2021). Housing crisis in Algeria: challenges and perspectives. Planning Malaysia, Vol. 19, No. 5, pp. 220-232. https://doi.org/10.21837/pm.v19i19.1073
Semmoud, N. (2015). Clair-obscur de l’informel. Contrôle des polarités urbaines informelles à Cherarba, périphérie sud-est d’Alger, Les Cahiers d’EMAM, Vol. 26. https://doi.org/10.4000/emam.983
Semmoud, N. (2003). The transformation of Algiers urban morphology, Annales de géographie, Vol. 633, pp. 495-517. https://www.persee.fr/doc/geo_0003-4010_2003_num_112_633_965
Stossel, Z., Kissinger, M., Meir, A. (2015). Assessing the state of environmental quality in cities - A multi-component urban performance (EMCUP) index, Environmental Pollution, Vol. 206, pp. 679-687. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2015.07.036
Tabti-Talamali, A., Baouni, T. (2018). Public transportation in Algiers: Towards a new governance approach, Case Studies on Transport Policy, Vol. 6, No. 4, pp. 706-715. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2018.08.009
United Nations (UN) (2017). The sustainable development goals. United Nations Publications [online]. https://sdgs.un.org/goals [Accessed: 15 May 2025].
United Nations (UN) (2018). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. New York: United Nations.
Valencia Torres, A. V., Tiwari, C., Atkinson, S. F. (2021). Progress in ecosystem services research: A guide for scholars and practitioners, Ecosystem Services, Vol. 49, 101267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2021.101267
Vernon, D., Lowe, R., Thill, S., Ziemke, T. (2015). Embodied cognition and circular causality: on the role of constitutive autonomy in the reciprocal coupling of perception and action, Frontiers in Psychology, Vol. 6, pp. 1660. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01660
Wood, A. (2021). Problematising concepts of transit-oriented development in South African cities, Urban Studies, Vol. 59, No. 12, pp. 2451-2467. https://doi.org/10.1177/00420980211033725
Zhang, C., Li, Y., Zhu, X. (2016). A Social-Ecological Resilience Assessment and Governance Guide for Urbanization Processes in East China, Sustainability, Vol. 8, No. 11, pp. 1101. https://doi.org/10.3390/su8111101
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2022 Spatium
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
